Cumulative Average Temperature

In Europe, weather futures for the summer months are based on the Cumulative Average Temperature (CAT) index. The CAT index is defined as cumulative daily average temperatures within the period covered by the derivative. For Canadian cities, both the CDD and CAT indices are used, but only CAT forecasts are provided here.

The CAT forecasts are issued for six Canadian and eight European cities, which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). For U.S. cities, CDDs are used instead of CATs. Our CAT forecasts are first available for paid subscribers only. All other subscribers can have access to those forecasts after the start of the calendar season, i.e., June 1st.

Since our temperature forecasts are currently prepared primarily for the calendar summer season (June-August), the CAT forecasts are issued for the same season. Occasionally, however, we also issue CAT forecasts for individual months within the cooling season, May through September. These "forecasts by opportunity" are available for paid subscribers only.

The skill scores presented here are for mean seasonal CAT forecasts. The observed values are settlement data reported by the CME. Click here to see how skill scores are calculated.