Next El Niño

If the above assumption is true and ENSO evolution indeed switched back to its pre-1977 pattern, then the recent sharp increase in the TNI index (Fig. 3) may be a harbinger of an El Niño event several months later. Another indication of a developing El Niño event is a record high warm water volume in the western Pacific. The higher the heat content, the stronger the subsequent El Niño warming. The occurrences of warm pool heat content maxima precede the maxima in Niño 3 SST anomalies by 12-24 months (rule 11). Within this interval, the El Niño will come probably earlier than later, because of the low level of solar activity. As shown by Enfield et al. (1991), low level of solar activity is supposed to leave the El Niños free to develop at intervals near 2-3 years, the recurrence interval favored by the internal dynamics of the Southern Oscillation system.