How it works

Fig. 8. The influence diagram showing the predictors for ENSO.

With the help of Data and Rule Explorers the user can insert variables and rules into a project and construct an influence diagram. As an example, Fig. 8 shows the influence diagram for El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 

When the influence diagram is prepared, the user may run the project in the forecast or hindcast mode to infer the value of the target variable in a given year (Fig. 9). During this process, the system asks for the information about the variables in the terminal nodes of the diagram (Fig. 10).

Fig. 9. Running the project in the forecast mode.

To facilitate the answer to those questions, the user is provided with the access to the data and descriptive information about the variable and related rule. The user can also search for any other pertinent information (Fig. 11).

Fig. 10. Questions about the variables in the terminal nodes.

The evidence from different sources is combined using the CF algebra. In addition, the Bayesian inference technique may be added later. When all the evidence is collected, a forecast for the target variable is issued, showing its categories (classes)  with the associated CFs of their occurrences. 

The user can also open the Custom Property window (Fig. 12) and check the information about individual variables and rules, or open the report that traces the logic behind the forecast (Fig. 13).

Fig. 11. Search form.

Fig. 12. Custom Properties window.

Fig. 13. Report showing the inference process.