It is expected that the NAO index, due to its 18-yr cycle, will remain positive in the next 2-3 years. It will not reach, however, the level observed in the early 1990s. The maximum of the secular cycle in the NAO index appears to have passed, and the index has started its long-term decline that may last for several decades.
The warming trend in the Norwegian and Barents Seas (as well as the Arctic overall) is close to its end. The temperature there will level off in the next few years and then start to decline. The transition to a colder climate may be quite sharp.
Since the Icelandic low will remain strong in the next few years and return to its more normal position in Davis Strait, temperature in the Northwest Atlantic will decrease. However, due to a long-term weakening trend of the Icelandic low, the region’s climate will be warmer than normal.
The North Atlantic overall will remain warmer than normal, largely due to the tropical and subtropical regions. The positive phase of the AMO will continue for another 20-30 years.