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North America
The distribution of SAT anomalies during the
winter
(DJF) of 2008 (Fig. 1) was in general agreement with our
forecasts issued in June
and October
2007. Negative temperature anomalies were observed over much of western
and central North America, and positive SAT anomalies were in the
southern and eastern parts of the continent, stretching from Texas to
the Canadian Maritime provinces (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 that shows
it in more
details for the United States). As predicted, frequent outbreaks of
cold Canadian air were observed in the Midwestern US, particularly in February, when mean monthly
temperatures were 6°C to 8°C below normal. The average
temperature for the contiguous United States was near its long-term
mean (Fig. 3).
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Fig.
1. SAT anomalies over North America in the winter
(DJF) of 2008.
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Fig.
2. Same as Fig. 1, except for the contiguous United States
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Fig.
3. Contiguous US SAT, winter (DJF) 1895-2008
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The atmospheric circulation was characterized by a
frequent upper-level toughing over the West and ridging over the East
(Fig. 4). The jet stream position was close to what is typically
observed during La Niña winters (Fig. 5), but shifted about
15
degrees west. As expected, the PNA index was close to zero (xls, doc). The TNH index (xls, doc) was positive
(0.8), which is typical for La Niña winters (rule 108, xls, doc).
The jet stream
steered frequent storms from the Pacific Northwest toward Utah and
Colorado and then northeast, toward the Great Lakes. These storms
brought record snow to the Colorado
Rockies and the Midwest.
The amount of winter precipitation in parts of the Colorado
Rockies exceeded 300% of normal (Fig. 6). Wisconsin's capital set a new
record for snowfall, with more than 196.3 cm (77.3 inches) of snow by
the end of February. The previous record was set during the
winter
of 1978/1979, when 194.6 cm (76.6 inches) of snow fell. See also an
interesting analysis of why
it was snowing so much in southern Wisconsin this winter.
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Fig.
4. 500-hPa height anomalies and the characteristic
position of the jet stream in the winter (DJF) of 2008.
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Fig.
5. Typical jet stream position, temperature and
precipitation patterns during La Niña events.
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Fig.
6. Precipitation anomalies over the United States in the
winter (DJF) of 2008.
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One notable area where the forecast failed was the
southwestern United States. Contrary to the forecast, mean winter
temperatures there were below average. The forecast was based primarily
on the canonical correlation analysis between winter SAT over North
America and preceding summer-fall SST anomalies in the North Atlantic
by van den Dool et al. (2007) (see rule 109, xls,
doc
for details). In the summer-fall 2007, the SST pattern closely
resembled the one associated with a positive SAT anomalies in the
southwestern US. These expectations were reinforced by the winter
forecasts issued by the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research
Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI).
However, the anomalously high pressure center, which
dominated in
the Southwest from March through November 2007, suddenly disappeared in
December, and after a very
warm fall season, temperatures there dropped to below normal
values.
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Season: |
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Winter 2008
Post-mortem analysis
Issued: March 10, 2008
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