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Review of winter 2011 in North America
The winter (DJF) of 2011 was very unusual for a strong La Niña event, especially during the first half of the season. Disastrous flooding in Southern California during December and extreme cold, snow and ice in the southeastern United States are examples of events in contrast with what is typically expected during a La Niña event, especially when it is accompanied by a negative PNA and PDO patterns. The major culprits behind those abnormalities were the negative phase of the NAO and the meridional type of atmospheric circulation. The negative NAO and Greenland blocking were also responsible for an extremely mild winter in northeastern Canada.
Winter 2011 forecast for North America
Several major factors are in place to shape the winter weather in North America: a strong La Niña event, negative PDO and NAO phases and still low solar activity. In addition, a rapid change of the wind direction in the equatorial stratosphere toward the west phase of the QBO will play a role.
The current La Niña episode in the equatorial Pacific is gaining strength and have all the ingredients to become one of the strongest events of recent decades. Because of this event, the confidence factors (CFs) are relatively high that winter (DJF) temperatures in the band stretching from western Canada to the Great Lakes are going to be below the 1971-2000 average. Some specifics of this La Niña suggest that the lowest temperature anomalies will probably be in the area from the Northern Plains to Midwest. La Niña events are also associated with above normal temperatures in the southern tier of the United States.
Winter 2011 forecast for Europe
Another anomalously cold winter appears to be in store for Europe; however it’s unlikely to be as cold as the winter of 2010. December will probably be the coldest month of the season (in terms of temperature anomalies). In January and February temperatures will be a bit closer to the 1971-2000 average and in some places, such as northern Scandinavia and the Mediterranean, they may be slightly above average.
Review of summer 2010 in Europe
The most significant event this summer was an extreme heat wave in Russia, which had a high human and economic toll. It was the hottest summer on record for many parts of European Russia and the worst drought since 1972. This heat wave was mostly a product of the strong and persistent blocking high, and not a result of global warming. Other countries in eastern Europe also experienced an anomalously hot summer. Sea surface temperatures in the Baltic Sea were more akin to those found in subtropical waters. Summer temperatures in western Europe were closer normal.
Review of summer 2010 in North America
The contiguous United States had its fourth warmest summer (JJA) in the 1895–2010 record, while Canada had its third warmest summer since 1948 when nationwide records began. Abnormal warmth dominated much of the eastern United States, where ten states experienced record-warm summers. In contrast, temperatures in the western United States were mostly near or below normal. It was one of the coolest summers on record in coastal California. Both seasonal and monthly temperature anomaly maps closely resembled our forecast.
Fall 2010 forecast for North America
The latest data has not changed much our preliminary outlook issued on July 28, therefore it becomes the final forecast for the fall of 2010. The fall of 2010 is forecast to be anomalously warm in the entire contiguous United States and adjacent parts of Canada and Mexico. It is possible that this fall may become one of the warmest on record. Particularly high confidence in above normal temperatures is for the eastern United States, especially in September and November. A relative cooling is expected in October for the Northeast and the Rocky Mountain area.
