Climate Logic specializes in seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. The forecasts are made using the Empirical Climate Prediction System (ECliPS), which relies on our comprehensive data and knowledge bases. Each forecast is accompanied by a confidence factor (CF) that reflects our confidence in the forecast. Forecasts are issued for five regions: Equatorial Pacific (ENSO events), North Pacific, North America, North Atlantic, and Europe. For the latter four regions, forecasts are prepared in the form of maps showing CFs for above and below normal categories of temperature and precipitation (coming soon for continents). Based on these maps, Climate Logic also provides weather derivative forecasts for major North American and European cities listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). A verification procedure is described and skill scores for these forecasts are available. See also examples of how you can benefit from using our forecasts.

Recent Forecasts and Development

The Trans-Niño index (TNI) is rising rapidly. Will an El Niño follow? (May 14, 2008). Prior to the climate shift in 1976/77, the TNI was leading the Nino 3.4 index by 3 to 12 months, but after the shift, the TNI was lagging the Nino 3.4 index by about the same number of months. It appears that in recent years the TNI started leading again. More>

Summer 2008 forecast update for Europe (April 25, 2008). New data provides an additional support for our earlier forecast of a hot summer in western Europe. A colder than normal summer is expected in eastern Europe. The area with precipitation deficit now also includes the western and eastern Mediterranean. More>

Hot and dry summer is expected for much of the western and central United States (summer 2008 forecast update, issued April 23, 2008). The temperature and precipitation anomaly patterns in this update have not changed much from the previous forecast issued March 17, 2008. Our confidence in hot and dry summer over much of the western United States is relatively high. However, due to a northward shifted monsoon anticyclone, the North American monsoon is now predicted to be early and wet, with above normal precipitation over Arizona and New Mexico in July-August. More>

Post-mortem analysis of our winter 2008 forecast is issued for all target areas (March 12, 2008). Overall, our first winter forecast was quite successful. The current La Niña event was predicted in February 2007. Major atmospheric circulation features, general SAT/SST anomaly patterns, and principal climate indices (such as the PDO, PNA, and NAO) were predicted correctly. Even the transition from an anomalously cold November-December 2007 to warm January-February 2008 in Europe was described in our forecast. There were several areas, however, where the forecast failed. To read more, go to the Forecast section and click on post-mortem analysis. It will be moved to our Archive section in about a month.